With a big shift in voter intention in Ontario in the homestretch of the campaign, a new poll shows the Conservative Party's earlier lead whittling away.
From a tracking poll of 1,000 Canadians, the latest numbers by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail shows Conservative support dropping and Liberal support gaining strength.
Conservatives have dropped from an 18-point national lead earlier this week to a nine-point lead now, according to interviews conducted Jan. 17 and 18. The national numbers (percentage point change since a Jan 14-16 poll in brackets):
- Liberals: 28 (+4)
- Conservatives: 37 (-5)
- NDP: 16 (-1)
- Bloc: 12 (same)
- Green: 7 (same)
There were similar yet more dramatic shifts in support at the tail end of the 2004 election campaign. However, Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper never had such a large lead back then.
For most of the post-holiday phase of this 2006 campaign, Liberal Leader Paul Martin's party has been steadily drifting down in the polls.
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Neither leader has enjoyed smooth campaigning this week. Both got knocked off message and away from their platforms.
Martin was dealt a blow mid-week when Canadian Auto Workers President Buzz Hargrove, stumping with the Liberal Leader in southwest Ontario, suggested that Quebecers were better off voting for the Bloc Quebecois than supporting Conservatives.
And instead of talking about his proposed policies, as he has most of the campaign, Harper has had to deal with questions about his statements regarding the courts, abortion rights and same-sex marriage.
"Clearly this week has been Harper's least effective week," Tim Woolstencroft of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca.
However, the pollster said the main factor in these latest numbers appears to have been the Liberal attack ads, which have been airing now on television for more than a week. The ads show a rather unpleasant picture of Harper, and ask pointed questions about his earlier statements.
"They're starting to have their desired impact," Woolstencroft said. "They are essentially reconnecting people to views they previously held about Stephen Harper, and that's easier than creating a whole new view of someone."
In Quebec, Liberals are up three points, and so are the Bloc Quebecois, while Conservatives have dropped seven points in a few days according to interviews conducted Jan. 17 and 18 (percentage point change since a Jan 14-16 poll in brackets):
- Liberals: 15 (+3)
- Conservatives: 24 (-7)
- NDP: 6 (+1)
- Bloc: 50 (+3)
- Green: 5 (-3)
In Montreal, where Liberal strength has been concentrated, the Grits are tied with the Tories at 18 per cent support while the Bloc sails along at 54 per cent. Outside Montreal, the Bloc leads the Tories 45-35, while the Liberals have only nine per cent support.
And in Ontario, the other province showing significant change, what a difference a few days have made (percentage point change since a Jan 14-16 poll in brackets):
- Liberals: 40 (+7)
- Conservatives: 33 (-6)
- NDP: 20 (same)
- Green: 7 (+1)
Most of that surge is coming in the Greater Toronto Area, comprised of the 416 and 905 area codes. The Liberals have jumped up to 50 per cent support (they had 55 per cent in the 2004 election), while the Conservatives are at 30 per cent -- a drop of seven points in a matter of days. The NDP is chugging along at 16 per cent, which is a drop of three points from its high of a few days ago.
In southwest and eastern Ontario, the Tories have a 10-point lead over the Liberals.
On the Prairies, the Tories remain overwhelmingly dominant, with a 59-18 lead over the Liberals. The NDP have 16 per cent support.
In B.C., the Tories remain in the lead with 43 per cent, with the NDP second at 28 per cent and the Liberals third at 25 per cent. The Tories are ahead both on the Lower Mainland and in the rest of B.C.
Polling conducted between Jan. 10 to 18 in Atlantic Canada gives the Tories a 43-35 lead over the Liberals. The NDP have 19 per cent support.
The survey also asked voters: Would a Conservative majority be good or bad for the country? There is some shift in those numbers as well, with 49 per cent saying this would be very good or good. That number is down from 55 per cent on the Jan. 14-16 poll.
Poll details:
- Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.
- Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a two-day period. Interviews were conducted between January 17th and 18th except where noted.
Sample distribution and associated margin of error to date:
Region, Sample Size and Margin of Error (+/-, percentage points)
- Canada: 1,000, 3.1
- Quebec: 247, 6.3
- Ontario: 379, 5.0
- B.C. (Jan. 16-18): 199, 7.0
- Atlantic Canada (Jan. 10-18): 346, 5.3
The questions cited:
Q. If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
Base: Decided voters
Q. In that case, which party's candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
Base: Decided voters
Q. If a Conservative majority government is elected would it be very good, good, bad or very bad for the country?
Base: Total sample
To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.
